How GLP-1 weight loss drugs are shaping the future of European food demand

Economists at ING have released a new report on the expected impact appetite-suppressing weight loss medications will have on European food demand. The insights reveal how much GLP-1 drugs will influence and reshape the industry in the years to come. 

GLP-1 drugs are widely discussed as potentially transformative for food consumption, but their near-term impact in 2026 is minimal, says ING. Even though users typically reduce calorie intake by 15–20%, low adoption rates (nearly 2% of European adults and 12% of Americans) mean total food demand is only reduced by about 0.25%, which the bank suggests isn’t yet a major concern for F&B companies.

GLP-1 usage is rising, but from a low base, so it’s unlikely to significantly impact food demand in 2026–2027. However, certain categories (snacks, candy, chocolate, and alcohol) are more vulnerable and shouldn’t be overlooked in the short-term.

GLP-1 impacts on food manufacturers 

The global market for GLP-1s will reach US$100 billion in 2027, according to ING. GLP-1 usage is already leading to significant changes in the way F&B is being developed and marketed. 

Some brands are experimenting with smaller portions, snack-sized meals, and portion-controlled packaging, while consciously packing in nutrition. GLP-1 is already driving increased demand for fiber-rich options. Meanwhile, there is also a rise in protein-enriched functional beverage innovation, which is deliberately targeting GLP-1 users.

For food manufacturers and restaurants, the focus is now on delivering flavor, texture, and nutrition in fewer bites.

Despite reducing individual calorie intake, GLP-1 drugs have a minimal overall impact on food demand in 2026, making them a limited concern for the F&B industry.

ING report: Key highlights

Besides the expected increase in GLP-1 adoption, ING expects the global market to grow by 20% over the next two years, driven by increased competition, lower prices, and wider government coverage.

There is a limited current impact, but categories like snacks, confectionery, and alcohol are already feeling early pressure.

ING has put forward four scenarios for 2030. In the most transformative projection, GLP-1 adoption could reduce total calorie intake in Europe by 2.5–3.5% by 2030.

Accurately measuring the data around how many people are using drugs like Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Wegovy injections, either as part of type 2 diabetes treatment or as a weight loss aid that has proven results, is virtually impossible at this stage, as many people use private prescriptions. 

GLP-1: Transformative or overhyped?

ING raises a legitimate question in its report: are the effects of GLP-1 on food production being overhyped?

Thijs Geijer, senior sector economist across Food & Agri at ING, tells Food Ingredients First that it’s “still early days.” ING’s estimate of 0.25% reduction in calorie demand shows that GLP-1 use’s impact on food production is still very small. 

“To become materially significant, the use of GLP-1s needs to continue its steep growth trajectory. Such growth depends on lower prices, successful introduction of more drugs (including pills) and broader reimbursement for more patients,” he says.

“Companies report that they’re seeing several changes among users, including preference for smaller portions, higher nutrient density, and products with less sugar. Clearly, those trends were already there, but GLP-1s reinforce them.”

Changes in grocery spending

The ING report also cites research from another report — “The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Demand” — which examines how consumers modify their food purchases after adopting appetite-suppressing GLP-1s.

It documents the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption, and shows that US households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by 5.3% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by 8.2%.

Key points include a 10% reduction in spending on chips and savory snacks, a 5% reduction in sweet bakery, cheese, and meat, and up to a 2.5% reduction in alcohol. Meanwhile, it highlights a 0⁠–2.5% increase in fresh fruit and vegetables.

The rise in GLP-1 use is leading to consumers changing some purchasing decisions and reducing their grocery spend. This is particularly highlighted in indulgent categories like confectionery and snacks.

F&B firms have time to adapt to GLP-1s

The ING report highlights another key point: companies have time to prepare for the increasing adoption of GLP-1s, as the industry closely monitors their impact on food choices and consumer demands in the coming years. 

PepsiCo, Mondelēz, Hershey, and Danone have all highlighted in recent earnings calls that innovation is an important part of their GLP-1 adaptation strategy. Meanwhile, Nestlé targets GLP-1 users with its protein-rich Vital Pursuit product line.

Product innovation and reformulation are two aspects ING recommends food producers and brands consider in relation to how they will respond to a scenario where there will be a notable increase in GLP⁠-1 adoption. 

Another recommendation is for companies to consider future marketing strategies that focus on consumers who are not using GLP-1s (which is most of the population in any scenario), while considering how to re-engage with consumers as soon as they come off GLP-1s. As ING points out, “after all, the temptations are still there, making it hard for consumers to sustain any changes in lifestyle and consumption habits.” 

A study from the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK, earlier this year, found that people tend to regain weight rapidly after stopping weight-loss drugs. 

Oral GLP-1 use 

Key food players are certainly leaning into marketing products that appeal to this growing cohort of consumers, even if the current number of people taking GLP-1 is in its infancy.

Oral formats are beginning to be commercialized with the first oral GLP-1 for weight loss (a pill version of semaglutide, the same drug as Wegovy/Ozempic) was approved in late 2025 and launched in early 2026. 

“Many users are curious about whether GLP-1 medications will work for them, but don’t feel the need (or have the means) to continue. This shows that it’s a very dynamic group, which also makes it more difficult to measure how many people are actually using it right now. So, it makes sense to filter through the noise and look for the most robust data when assessing the impact in a specific market,” Geijer says.

“Only a few products and categories appear to be fully isolated (including fruit, vegetables, water, and yogurt). That could evolve when knowledge about dietary needs of users becomes more mature, and when the combination of drugs and dietary advice becomes more common. Public health authorities will push this to increase the likelihood of sustained lifestyle changes.”

F&B stakeholders will be closely monitoring the GLP-1 trend, especially as pills, which are in the late stage of development, are expected to influence GLP-1 usage.

GLP-1 pills to boost uptake?

New oral GLP-1–type drugs are in late-stage development, with orforglipron (a non-peptide GLP-1 pill) expected to be approved later this year.

Pills are seen as being a more convenient way of taking GLP-1 medication. “In our view, oral use is one of the events that leads to continued interest around GLP-1s and higher demand,” Geijer adds.

In conclusion, Geijer explains that over the next 3⁠–5 years, F&B stakeholders should be closely monitoring the GLP-1 trend.

“Firstly, look at the number of current users in key markets. Secondly, monitor the decisions from public health authorities on broader reimbursement, and thirdly, for European-based companies, it makes sense to keep a close eye on what’s happening with sales volumes in UK retail given that it’s the most advanced European market in terms of GLP-1 usage.” 

GLP-1 adoption may be too small to move the needle now, but not too small to ignore, especially for indulgent categories.

For F&B manufacturers, a gradual adaptation strategy will likely be sufficient for 2026 and 2027. Nevertheless, it’s wise to consider more extreme scenarios to avoid surprises a few years from now, ING notes.