FAO warns of looming “agri-food crisis” amid Strait of Hormuz disruption

The FAO has repeatedly escalated its warnings about the global fallout from the Strait of Hormuz crisis over recent weeks, but its latest alert is markedly more severe, signaling that the chaos in the region is no longer just a short-term shipping disruption, but a systemic shock to global food systems.

Earlier warnings were about vulnerability. However, the latest update introduces time-bound consequences, with FAO chief economist Máximo Torero forecasting that it will take just six to 12 months before a global food price crisis could be triggered. 

The Strait of Hormuz (which has been effectively closed since February 28) is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping corridors, through which roughly a fifth of global oil trade and a large share of Gulf energy exports normally pass. 

In recent months, heightened military tensions, attacks on commercial vessels, rising insurance costs, and restrictions on maritime traffic have severely disrupted shipping flows through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

Chain reaction leads to food inflation

While the immediate concern has centered on oil and energy markets, international agencies increasingly warn that the consequences extend far beyond fuel supplies.

The food industry is particularly vulnerable to the Strait of Hormuz disruption because modern agriculture depends heavily on stable energy and fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer production relies on natural gas and petrochemical inputs, while many fertilizer shipments and agricultural commodities move through Hormuz-linked trade routes. 

As shipping costs and energy prices rise, fertilizer becomes more expensive and less accessible, leading many farmers to reduce fertilizer use. This, in turn,could lower crop yields in upcoming harvest seasons, tightening global food supplies and pushing up prices for staples such as wheat, maize, rice, and vegetable oils.

Earlier this month, Food Ingredients First reported on how world food commodity prices rose again in April, the third consecutive monthly increase. The price rises were driven by higher costs across vegetable oils, meat, and cereals as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to push up energy and fertilizer prices.

FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warns that a global food price crisis could emerge within six to 12 months (Credit: FAO Alessandra Benedetti).

Potential ways to mitigate risks

Torero says that the disruption is no longer a temporary shipping problem, and the window for preventive action is “closing quickly.” He stresses that now is the time to seriously consider ways to strengthen countries’ ability to absorb shocks and improve their resilience to this kind of chokepoint, in order to reduce the potential impacts as much as possible.

Because food trade is globally connected, problems in one major route, like the Strait of Hormuz, can quickly spread to other countries, pushing up food prices even in places far away from the disruption.

However, to prevent a worsening situation, the FAO says countries (including governments, international financial organizations, and the private sector) would need to rely on diversified shipping and supply routes, avoid imposing export bans, keep humanitarian supply chains open, and put financial or logistical safeguards in place to offset rising transport costs.

Stakeholders also need to build regional reserves and warehousing capacity to strengthen future shock absorption and improve the resilience of domestic and cross-border transport systems.

UN alignment on the risks 

Several organizations have reacted to the FAO’s latest warning over the Strait of Hormuz disruption as the Middle East conflict shows no real signs of abating.

These include the World Food Programme , which aligns with the FAO but adds a humanitarian stress lens, including how the disruption could lead to a “sharp rise in acute hunger risk” and estimates up to tens of millions of additional people will be pushed into food insecurity under prolonged disruption scenarios.

Meanwhile, the International Food Policy Research Institute backs up what the FAO says about fertilizer markets entering a phase of heightened uncertainty, where geopolitical risks intersect with highly concentrated production, energy dependence, and fragile logistics. 

“These risks are no longer hypothetical. The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical chokepoint for fertilizer trade, with around 35% of global urea flows, over one quarter of ammonia trade, just above 20% of phosphates, and roughly 45% of global sulfur exports transiting the Strait,” says the organization.

“Ongoing restrictions on maritime traffic through Hormuz underscore its role as a key pressure point in global fertilizer supply chains. Even partial or temporary disruptions can reverberate through markets, while a prolonged or intensified disruption would pose serious challenges for securing adequate nutrient supplies ahead of future cropping seasons.” 

“Moreover, even in the event of an easing or reopening, restarting production, logistical normalization, and contract re‑alignment would take time, delaying a full recovery in supply flows.”

To make matters worse, the FAO also cautions that the situation could worsen as the expected El Niño pattern develops, potentially bringing drought conditions and disrupting normal rainfall across multiple growing regions.

Higher energy and fertilizer prices are increasing the risk of broader food inflation as farmers scale back inputs and harvests weaken.

Crisis response tracker

This week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has also launched an updated Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker to monitor how governments are reacting to the energy market disruptions caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict. 

The tool tracks real-time policy measures aimed at managing the impact of reduced and unstable oil and gas supplies, particularly those flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. It provides an overview of how countries are responding to rising energy prices and supply uncertainty, focusing on actions to stabilize markets and protect consumers.

The tracker categorizes government responses into two main areas —demand-side measures to conserve energy and policies to support households and businesses facing higher costs. It highlights actions such as energy-saving initiatives, fuel demand reduction strategies, and financial support or price-relief measures. 

The IEA emphasizes that the situation is evolving quickly and the tracker will be continuously updated to reflect new policy responses as countries adapt to ongoing supply pressures.