Europe’s drought crisis expected to escalate, warn Joint Research Centre scientists

Damage to vegetation is likely to emerge in the coming months if higher temperatures and low rainfall persist across much of Europe, warns a new report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC). This will put extra pressure on dwindling river flows, ecosystems, and potentially expose agri-food supplies to risks.

The lack of rainfall and warmer-than-usual weather in recent months has dried out soils and sapped rivers across large stretches of Central and Eastern Europe.

Concerns are mounting as large parts of northern and western Europe have been facing drought and higher-than-average temperatures. Central, eastern, and south-eastern Europe, as well as the eastern Mediterranean region, are also experiencing broadening warning drought conditions.

In contrast, the report notes that much of Portugal, Spain, western and central France experienced a rainy winter, with northern Italy having a wetter start to the spring.

Scientists at the JRC conduct research in various fields to provide science-backed independent advice to EU policymakers. 

Crops under pressure

JRC says that although much of the vegetation across most of Europe appeared healthy by the end of March, stress signs are already visible in parts of northern Africa, western Syria, and south-eastern Türkiye. 

This has sparked fears that early plant development may be masking vulnerabilities that could surface if drought conditions persist into the growing season.

Anticipated vegetation development will likely have further impacts and “may result later in critical impacts for crops and vegetation depending on the evolution of the drought,” according to the report. 

Dwindling river flows

The prolonged lack of precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures are potentially affecting river flows, which will have direct impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, navigation, and energy production. 

Seasonal forecasts highlight drier-than-normal conditions over the UK, Ireland, northern France, Benelux, northern Germany, Denmark, southern Scandinavia, and the whole Baltic Sea region until at least the end of June. Wetter-than-average conditions are predicted in the Iberian Peninsula, central Italy, the eastern Alps, and Greece.

The JRC report does not go into much detail about the particular types of crops that could be affected by prolonged weather extremes, but key crops and commodities certainly have been battered by a range of climate challenges in recent months. 

In April, the Climate Intelligence Unit’s latest research revealed how cocoa prices are up in the UK by one-third as extreme weather and climate change continue to bite, and that UK consumers are being hit by higher chocolate prices as a result.

Downpours and droughts affect cocoa harvest in key growing regions in West Africa, like Côte d’Ivoire, from where the UK imported most of its cocoa last year (84%).

Also in April, whistleblowers within the UK’s biggest food producers, manufacturers, and retailers flagged an “interconnected set of crises” in an anonymous memo warning that degrading soil health, water scarcity, and climate change pose imminent and unique threats to the country’s food security.

Climate shocks have also been hitting Europe’s wine sector hard this year which led to the European Commission coming up with several measures to help face extreme weather events.

Climate change is predicted to increase droughts and average temperatures in Europe. Meanwhile, water mismanagement remains a major challenge.