Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit: Climate crisis batters cocoa production and pushes up UK prices

As Easter approaches, the non-profit Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has revealed its latest research, highlighting how cocoa prices are up in the UK by one-third as extreme weather and climate change continue to bite.

The analysis says that UK consumers are being hit by higher chocolate prices as a result.

Downpours and droughts affect cocoa harvest in key growing regions in West Africa like the Côte d’Ivoire, where the UK imported most of its cocoa last year (84%). This was worth approximately £135 million (US$178.5 million). 

These extreme weather events have impacted production since last year, increasing cocoa prices as availability dwindles. 

“West Africa has been pummelled by climate impacts over the past few years. There was extreme rainfall in 2023, with total precipitation more than double the 30-year average for the time of year. This caused an outbreak of black pod disease, with cocoa plants rotting in the wet conditions. This was followed by a drought in early 2024 typical of El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a natural climate phenomenon,” explains the ECIU report.

“However, climate change is interacting with El Niño to drive even higher temperatures and more extreme weather. In March 2024, West Africa was then hit with an extreme humid heatwave, which scientists at the World Weather Attribution said was made 4°C hotter and 10 times more likely by climate change.”

“West African farmers went from having far too much rain to not enough, all under oppressively hot temperatures, which affected the sowing, growing and harvesting of cocoa crops.”

Industry developing alternatives

Rising cocoa prices, partly driven by climate change as well as geopolitical tensions, are driving chocolate manufacturers and retailers to rethink their ingredient sourcing and pricing strategies.

Examples include Palsgaard’s cocoa butter reduction solutions, which allow manufacturers to use less cocoa butter without compromising chocolate’s signature mouthfeel and taste.

Last year, Cargill increased the capacity of its coatings & fillings plant by 60% in Deventer, the Netherlands, to help its European customers meet chocolate trends and mitigate some of the escalating challenges facing the cocoa and chocolate industries.

Meanwhile, confectionery stalwarts Mondelēz and Hershey are grappling with challenges posed by escalating cocoa prices due to climate change, which are expected to weigh on their businesses throughout 2025. Companies are leveraging strategies such as price adjustments and product diversification to circumvent these challenges, with Oreo expressing concerns over “unprecedented” inflation impacting earnings.

Crop losses

The ECIU says that in mid-April 2024, cocoa hit a record high of around US$12,200 per metric ton. But by mid-April 2025, it was trading at around US$8,500 per metric ton, three times more expensive than the same time in 2022 (before the recent extreme weather, when prices were relatively stable).

Analysis shows that the average price per kilo of cocoa beans imported into the UK has risen more than 30% over the last three years.

In 2022, the UK imported 63 million kg worth £134 million (US 177 million); in 2023, the nation imported 58 million kg worth £127 million (US 168 million), and in 2024, 57 million kg worth £160 million (US$211 million).

“This means that imports of cocoa beans to the UK have fallen by 10% since 2022, while the total cost has risen by around 20%. The average price per kilo has gone up by a third (32%), meaning the UK is paying more for less cocoa,” the report says.