Disasters cause US$3.8 trillion in crop losses over 30 years, flags FAO

16 Oct 2023 --- In the past three decades, an estimated US$3.8 trillion worth of crops and livestock production has been lost due to natural global disasters, corresponding to an average loss of US$123 billion annually or 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP).

This is according to a new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), entitled “The impact of disasters on agriculture and food security.”

The report brings the first-ever global estimation of the impact of disasters on agricultural production focused on crops and livestock. It also notes that the figure may be higher if systematic data on losses in the fisheries, aquaculture and forestry subsectors were available.

A need for improving data 
The report stresses the need for urgently improving data and information on the impact of disasters on all subsectors of agriculture to create data systems that can serve as the foundation for effective action plans. 

“Agriculture is one of the most highly exposed and vulnerable sectors in the context of disaster risk, given its profound dependence on natural resources and climate conditions. Recurrent disasters have the potential to erode gains in food security and undermine the sustainability of agri-food systems,” says FAO Director-General QU Dongyu in the foreword to the report. 

“Leveraging FAO’s technical expertise, this publication showcases opportunities to proactively address risks in agri-food systems while demonstrating ways to mainstream disaster risk management into agricultural practices and policies.”

The report reveals that over the last three decades, disasters — defined as severe disruptions to the functioning of a community or society — inflicted the highest relative losses on lower and lower-middle-income countries, up to 15% of their total agricultural GDP. 

Disasters also significantly impacted Small Island Developing States (SIDS), causing them to lose nearly 7% of their agricultural GDP.

Losses by product groups
The report indicates that losses related to major agricultural products are showing increasing trends. For example, losses in cereals amounted to an average of 69 million tons per year in the last three decades — corresponding to the entire cereal production of France in 2021 — followed by fruits and vegetables and sugar crops, with each approaching average losses of 40 million tons per year.

(Credit: FAO/Fahad Kaizer) Flood victims head off to fetch drinking water using vases at Shakhahati village in Kurigram district, Bangladesh.For fruits and vegetables, losses corresponded to the entire production of fruits and vegetables in Japan and Vietnam in 2021.

Meats, dairy products and eggs showed an average estimated loss of 16 million tons per year, corresponding to the production of meats, dairy products and eggs in Mexico and India in 2021.

Meanwhile, rice availability is at historic lows following India’s sudden ban on non-basmati rice exports imposed in June. Without rice from the largest global exporter, prices have soared and the situation could spell further trouble if the El Niño weather phenomenon ends up being worse than expected.

Regional differences  
Global losses mask significant variability across regions, subregions and country groups. 

According to the FAO, Asia experienced the largest share of the total economic losses. Africa, Europe and the Americas also displayed a similar order of magnitude. 

However, losses in Asia only accounted for 4% of the agricultural added value, while in Africa, they corresponded to nearly 8%. The variability was even higher across subregions.

In absolute terms, losses were higher in high-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries. Still, low-income countries, especially SIDS, suffered the highest losses in agricultural added value.

In Ukraine, for example, the infrastructure collapse in the war-torn territory of Kherson is flooding farmland around the Dnipro River and will complicate access to wheat, maize and soybean crops and make harvesting impossible. The catastrophe was expected to lead to the displacement of farmers and short and long-term agriculture production losses.

Cascading impacts of disasters
Disaster events have increased from 100 per year in the 1970s to around 400 yearly worldwide in the past 20 years. 

Disaster events are increasing in frequency, intensity and complexity, and their impact is also expected to worsen as climate-induced disasters amplify existing social and ecological vulnerabilities.

The report highlights that when hazards manifest, they can produce cascading impacts across multiple systems and sectors. Underlying disaster risk drivers include climate change, poverty and inequality, population growth, health emergencies caused by pandemics, practices such as unsustainable land use and management, armed conflicts and environmental degradation.

In extreme cases, disasters result in displacement and outward migration of rural populations. Massive flooding triggered by abnormal monsoon rains in Pakistan’s southern province of Sindh is an illustrative example of how the combination of slow and sudden onset hazards triggered displacement, negatively impacting agri-food systems and increasing food insecurity.

Drought also impacted regions, specifically in California, after heavy rainfall struck following an extended drought, there was widespread concern for the state’s almond farms, which provide almost 80% of the world’s almond supply.

Toward greater resilience of agri-food systems
Proactive and timely interventions in response to forecasted hazards are crucial to building resilience by preventing and reducing risks in agriculture. 

The report outlines three key priorities for action: improving data and information on the impacts of disasters on all subsectors of agriculture — crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture and forestry; developing and mainstreaming multisectoral and multi-hazard disaster risk reduction approaches into policy and programming at all levels.

Edited by Elizabeth Green