UK agriculture: Study predicts oranges to thrive as onions struggle with climate change impact

By the year 2080, climate change will make the UK suitable for growing oranges, chickpeas, and okra, which are traditionally grown in “warmer parts of the world,” scientists have predicted. While home-produced hummus, tofu and marmalade will also be common on supermarket shelves, some existing key crops like onions and oats might become “harder to grow.”

The findings stem from a “modelling study” conducted by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia (UEA). 

The team investigated how over 160 food crops might grow in different parts of the UK if temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels. In the South East and East Anglia, temperature spikes of 2°C may make the region unsuitable for growing wheat and strawberries, and at 4°C, crops like onions and oats could also be affected.

“Our climate is expected to change substantially over the coming decades at a time when there will be rising demand for food due to population growth,” says lead author Dr. John Redhead, a Spatial Ecologist at UKCEH.

“It is therefore essential that arable farming becomes more resilient; one possible solution is growing different crops that are more suited to the new local conditions.”

The majority of global food supply relies on a relatively small number of crops, and greater diversity would “boost food security by improving climate resilience,” note the authors.

Balancing challenges and opportunities

Climate change is already affecting UK crops and farmers’ ability to manage them, the study notes.

The UK has witnessed record low yields caused by extreme weather, leading to an increase in agricultural pests and diseases.“There have been several years of record low yields caused by extreme weather, often in combination, such as a wet winter followed by a particularly dry spring, while new agricultural pests and diseases are becoming established or increasing with climate change.”

The study, part of the OpenCLIM research project and published in Climate Resilience and Sustainability, aims to provide valuable information to the farming and food sectors on how to tackle the challenges of cultivating new crops in the UK by mapping projections for every 1 km square in the UK.

Meanwhile, there would also be “substantial increases” in suitability for a broad range of crops not currently widely grown in the UK. These include sunflower, durum wheat, soybeans, cowpeas, chickpeas, citrus fruit, okra, and wine grapes.

Crop suitability will increase most in the Southwest and Scottish Borders, as the scientists do not expect rising temperatures to be offset by summer water shortages, especially with 4°C of warming. However, areas outside the South East and East Anglia have small fields, uneven terrain and distance from supply chains. 

“Clearly, it’s unlikely to be feasible just to switch large-scale food production from Britain’s agricultural heartlands of southeastern England to Scotland, for example,” notes Dr. Redhead.

“However, climate change is happening now, and its impacts will increase by 2080, so whatever action is taken will involve big challenges in terms of where our food comes from and the way our agricultural landscapes are managed.”

Impact on consumer diets

The authors believe greater crop diversity would boost food security by improving climate resilience, leading to a shift toward sustainable foods.

The scientists expect consumers to shift to a more balanced diet as crop diversity widens in the future.“There would also be potentially positive impacts on wider biodiversity and people’s diets. Legumes such as chickpeas and soybeans, which have recently had their first commercial UK harvests, are important protein sources.”

They expect consumers to transition from heavy meat consumption to a more balanced diet and lower carbon footprint. Legumes also add nitrogen to the soil, reducing the reliance on fertilisers, they note.

Toward agricultural advancements

The scientists recommend further research on crops that can grow in higher temperatures to address future farming challenges.

They also suggest changing the UK’s agricultural supply and distribution networks “to better support farmers growing new crops in new locations” and adopting new agricultural systems such as paludiculture (wet farming) and indoor vertical farming.

Breeding and growing more heat or drought-resilient varieties of existing staple crops is another way to tackle rising global temperatures, they add.

Bridging the knowledge gap

The authors also acknowledge that while it is not possible to predict a crop’s profitability in 2080 definitively, the study addresses the gap in knowledge about the climatic suitability of crops in particular regions, which is “currently limiting uptake of new produce.”

New agricultural systems like indoor vertical farming can help overcome farming challenges.“Without such data, agricultural systems are likely to be ‘locked in’ to current crops, with adaptations failing to keep pace with climate change or relying on practices that exacerbate its impacts, such as heavy irrigation that would increase water scarcity,” says study co-author Professor Rachel Warren of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA.

“Major changes to agricultural systems and diets can take decades to implement and so our long-term projections provide important information well ahead of time for farmers, supermarkets, researchers, policymakers and the public on the opportunities, challenges and trade-offs involved in adapting to the impacts of climate change,” she concludes.