Tetra Pak and Lund University spotlight dairy industry’s future in “four plausible scenarios”

02 Oct 2020 --- The F&B sector will undergo an “enormous transformation” over the next decade, with the dairy industry feeling this most acutely, according to researchers at Tetra Pak and Lund University, Sweden. The researchers used established methodologies to develop four scenarios for the dairy industry in 2030 and related food processing and distribution sectors.

The key to success in the new landscape will be in embracing flexibility and proactively responding to the wave of disruptive changes, the organizations assert. While they support that many challenges will lie ahead, they anticipate a wealth of opportunities for manufacturers.

“The global dairy industry is at the very heart of the global food transformation, and the contours of this transition are already starting to take shape,” Dr. Christian Koch, Lund University School of Economics and Management, tells FoodIngredientsFirst.

The scenarios are explained as “as different from each other as possible, within the limits of plausibility and credibility.” Therefore, the researchers state these all should be considered as future plausible outcomes.

The collaborating organizations have recently completed a joint study that analyzes six key global markets to examine the critical uncertainties of social environmental forces and technological transitions that could shift the dairy landscape in the next ten years. 

18-month research
The study, Global trends affecting dairy strategies, follows an 18-month research project by Lund University School of Economics and Management (LUSEM), supported by Tetra Pak, to examine a shifting dairy landscape and forecast what the dairy industry will look like in 2030. 

The four scenarios present myriad implications that could change the business environment.Analyzing six key global markets, including the UK, US, China, India, Nigeria and Brazil, the study outlines four plausible scenarios as: “Dairy Evolution”, “Green Dairy”, “New Fusion”, and “Brave New Food” – each demonstrating the varying interplay of socio-environmental forces and technological transition, and with very different outcomes. 

These four scenarios were determined by using methodology based on the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, identifying both predetermined factors, such as demographic shifts and climate change, and potential disruptions from critical uncertainties such as technological transformation and socio-environmental forces. 

A host of implications
The four scenarios present myriad implications that could change the business environment.

The first outlined scenario, “Dairy Evolution” is the scenario characterized by “no big surprises, where the dairy industry would continue to follow current trends” met with smaller disruptions. 

“Green Dairy” is marked by strong socio-environmental forces, such as consumer demands and policy restrictions but little technological transition, that drive the dairy industry to invest heavily to reduce carbon footprint. 

“New Fusion” is revealed as the trend of innovative technologies and processes met by weak socio-environmental forces that could significantly impact the industry. 

The final scenario, “Brave New Food,” combines “strong socio-environmental forces and highly innovative technologies,” which together would lead to a “complete transformation.”

Anticipating the degree of transformation, Tetra Pak has started collaborating with start-ups and academia to accelerate understanding of different proteins’ performance under different processing conditions. 

Through this collaboration, the company will create solutions that enable customers to take advantage of the changes that lie ahead in traditional cow-based milk, plant-based beverages and lab-grown dairy alternatives.

For in-depth insights on the study, readers may be directed to FoodIngredientsFirst’s exclusive video interview with Tetra Pak and Lund University.

By Benjamin Ferrer