Shopping in wartime: Anxious European consumers “more mindful” amid conflict, study reveals

21 Dec 2022 --- In the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, many consumers are beginning to feel the impact of war on the food chain. European shoppers are adapting their buying habits as they struggle with increasing prices and diminished food security. A newly released study, “Changes in food behavior in times of crisis,” led by Aarhus University, Denmark, and funded by the European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT), presents new findings demonstrating these emerging trends in consumer behavior. 

Talking to FoodIngredientsFirst, Klaus G. Grunert, professor of marketing at Aarhus University and founder and director of the MAPP Research Centre, walks us through the report’s findings. 

“Consumers feel the impact of the war in Ukraine, but they are also concerned about climate change,” he explains. “As a result, the reactions we find are a combination of thriftiness and mindfulness.”

The overarching analysis of the data is that conflict and climate change are causing worried consumers to be more considerate about their purchases, leading to a drop in consumption of red meat, dairy and alcohol.

Consumers are noticing price rises in red meat, dairy and alcohol.Anxiety and restraint 
Grunert stresses the need for the food industry to adapt to consumers’ worries over sustainable purchasing.

“The food industry faces a dilemma with simultaneous demands for affordability and sustainability. Sustainability can no longer be a niche for the affluent,” he flags.

“At the same time, the food industry needs to be transparent in its pricing policies if a decline of consumer trust is to be avoided.”

A similar report by Aarhus University in 2020 studying the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown measures on consumers showed similar changes in behavior, but not to the extent of this new report.

“Consumer reactions now are more pronounced than 2020,” says Grunert. “More people report changes. The increased price sensitivity is notable, but also the continued development toward more mindfulness.” 

“We expect the trend toward more mindfulness to continue, as it is based on goals that many consumers had already pre-COVID. Whether the increased price sensitivity will persist will depend on how prices develop within the next year or so.”

After the COVID-19 lockdown, consumers present some unexpected behavior.

“We were surprised that the development toward more enjoyment and creativity in home cooking and eating is still largely intact. We thought this development may have changed once people reverted to restaurants and eating in canteens.”

Consumers are becoming more mindful and deliberate about what they choose to purchase to cut costs. The bottom line 
The report itself surveyed 5,000 consumers across 10 European countries. Of that number, 55% percent felt that the war in Ukraine and ensuing economic impacts and supply chain disruption have made food production more vulnerable.

Over half (54%) think the war is the main reason for increased food prices in Europe, and 53% are apprehensive about food shortages. 

Since the 2020 study, consumers are noting price increases in animal products. 55% of consumers say they have noticed significant price increases in red meat, 52% in fish, and 51% in dairy. 

Of these price increases, 48% surveyed believed that the war has enabled food retailers and manufacturers to make more profit. 

Saving by switching
In general, consumer sentiment toward increased prices is resulting in them cutting costs wherever they can, usually by switching to cheaper brands. 

More than a third (37%) of consumers report buying less red meat, and a third buy less fish and poultry. 12% stopped buying any convenience foods and 10% stopped buying any alcohol. 

To save money on cereal and dairy, one of every three consumers have switched to cheaper brands (35% for cereal, 33% for dairy). 

Consumers are concerned about transparency and sustainability.Mindful shopping 
As a result of their increased thriftiness, consumers across Europe are being more deliberate and mindful about what they purchase; 52% say they check prices more than before the pandemic, an increase from 31% in 2020.

Under half (41%) make fewer unplanned purchases, up from 26% in 2020; 40% check use-by dates, and 39% use labels to compare products. 

Regarding cooking and eating, the report grouped European consumers into five categories. 

The report looks at trends in consumer behavior concerning cooking and eating, grouping European consumers into five categories: more or less concerned with food (7.4% and 8.9%, respectively), more price sensitive (32.5%),more mindful (32.2%), resilient and essentially unchanging (19%). 

Grunert anticipates industry reaction to more deliberate consumer purchasing as sustainability and transparency inform their decision-making to increasing degrees.

“We will end up having more products positioned in terms of health and sustainability, and the industry will need to find new ways of informing consumers about them,” he says.

Grunert hopes this data will provide a foundation for executives to react to consumer demands in an informed manner.

“We hope this research will empower decision makers to craft informed and timely policies that adequately tackle mounting consumer concerns regarding spiraling food costs,” explains Grunert. 

“It is also important that policymakers continue to uplift the significant progress made by consumers to make more mindful, healthy and sustainable food choices as we continue to address the growing sustainability challenges of our time.”

Innova correlations
This report’s insights correlate with Innova Market Insights’ Top Ten Trends for 2023 findings. The annual Top Ten Trends are based on wide-ranging global consumer surveys. Coupled with comprehensive market and new product data, they highlight the driving forces behind consumer decision-making. 

Within this macro context, Innova Market Insights named ‘Redefining value’ as its number-one consumer trend for 2023. As value for money becomes increasingly important to modern consumers in the cost-of-living crisis, they are becoming more discerning about what they buy. The new report by Aarhus University and EIT serves to further evidence this.

By James Davies