GAP report 2019: Increasing crop and livestock outputs critical to future food security

17 Oct 2019 --- Sustainably producing enough food, feed, fiber and bioenergy for the expected 2050 population of 10 billion people is a critical challenge facing food and farming industries. New analysis by Virginia Tech asserts that global agricultural productivity must increase to an average annual rate of 1.73 percent – from the current 1.63 percent – to meet growing demand. Low levels of productivity growth and high rates of food insecurity could also catalyze a spike in obesity levels because people will rely on cheaper, less nutrient-dense food. Agri-food players must ramp up R&D, sustainable practices and the use of digital technologies to accelerate innovation.

Findings of the research are presented in the 2019 Global Agricultural Productivity Report Productivity Growth for Sustainable Diets, and More (GAP Report), issued by Virginia Tech’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences.

“Productivity growth is particularly strong in China and South Asia, but it is slowing in the agricultural powerhouses of North America, Europe and Latin America,” the report highlights. The study also calls attention to the alarmingly low levels of productivity growth in low-income countries, where there are also high rates of food insecurity, malnutrition and rural poverty.

The study calls attention to low levels of productivity growth in low-income countries with high rates of food insecurity, malnutrition and rural poverty.“Unable to afford higher-priced nutrient-dense foods, such as animal proteins and fruits and vegetables, consumers will rely on foods made from cheaper cereal grains for most of their calories, exacerbating skyrocketing obesity rates in adults and children,” the report further states.

Agricultural productivity growth in low-income countries is rising at an average annual rate of just 1 percent. The UN Sustainable Development Goals call for doubling the productivity of the lowest-income farmers by 2030. 

“Decades of research and experience tell us that by accelerating productivity growth, it is possible to improve environmental sustainability, while ensuring that consumers have access to the foods they need and want,” says Tom Thompson, Associate Dean and Director of Global Programs for the Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Sciences.

The 2019 GAP Report is aimed at examining the pivotal role of agricultural productivity in achieving global goals for environmental sustainability, economic development and improved nutrition. Agricultural productivity, measured as Total Factor Productivity, increases when the output of crops and livestock increases using existing or reduced amounts of land, labor, fertilizer, capital and livestock.

The analysis looks at the powerful combination of agricultural technology and best farm management practices. It also highlights the role of ecosystem services in supporting productivity crop growth, sustainability and resilience.

The GAP Report brings together expertise from Virginia Tech and other universities, the private sector, NGOs, conservation and nutrition organizations and global research institutions. Productivity data for the GAP Index are provided by the USDA Economic Research Service. 

Sustaining productivity gains
Historically, productivity growth has been strongest in high-income countries, such as the US. This leads to significant environmental benefits, as outlined by the GAP Report.

Due to the widespread adoption of improved agricultural technologies and best farm management practices, especially in high-income countries, global agricultural output has increased by 60 percent, while global cropland has increased by just 5 percent during the past 40 years. 

Between 1980 and 2015, productivity gains led to a 41 percent decrease in the amount of land used in US corn production, irrigation water use declined 46 percent, greenhouse gas emissions declined 31 percent and soil erosion (tons of soil loss per acre) declined by 58 percent.

Robin White, Assistant Professor at Virginia Tech states US livestock production has little impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Animal agriculture in the US has experienced similar productivity gains, dramatically reducing the environmental footprint of livestock production. According to Robin White, Assistant Professor of animal and poultry science at Virginia Tech, if livestock production in the US were eliminated, total US greenhouse gas emissions would decline by only 2.9 percent.

In the absence of further productivity gains in Total Factor Productivity, the Virginia Tech researchers assert that more land and water will be needed to increase food and agriculture production. This strains a natural resource base already threatened by climate change.

Curbing the drivers of unsustainable farming
The report calls for a strong focus on countries with high rates of population growth, persistent low levels of agricultural productivity and significant shifts in consumption patterns. These are highlighted as the primary drivers of unsustainable agricultural practices, such as converting forests to crop and rangeland.

Productivity growth is generated by innovations such as precision agriculture technology, improved seeds and best practices for nutrient management and animal health. Attention to ecosystem services, such as pollination and erosion prevention, can increase and sustain productivity gains over time, notes the Virginia Tech analysis.

The GAP Report describes six strategies for accelerating productivity growth: investing in public agricultural R&D and extension, embracing science- and information-based technologies, improving infrastructure and market access, cultivating partnerships for sustainable agriculture and nutrition, expanding regional and global trade, and reducing post-harvest loss and food waste.

This year has seen ample collaborations between the public and private sectors in the push to accelerate innovation in the agritech space. Food fortification is one example of this. Within this space, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) has been working with DSM for several years to fortify rice, which holds a massive potential to combat micronutrient deficiencies, particularly in Asia. 

“The private sector is well positioned to implement innovative, sustainable solutions that provide nutritional foods to people living in urban areas,” Rona Weekes, Director Nutrition Improvement at DSM, told FoodIngredientsFirst’s sister platform NutritionInsight. 

Last month, UK businesses were invited to apply for a share of up to £20 million (US$24.6 million) from the UK government’s Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund Transforming Food Production Challenge. The competition fund is set to invest in large-scale projects developing new and efficient low-emission food production systems by addressing technological and other bottlenecks holding back state-of-the art systems from supplying consumers.

Also in September, key industry players including Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) joined forces in an industry-wide initiative to modernize global agricultural commodity trade operations. The initiative is initially looking at new technologies – such as blockchain and artificial intelligence – to create digital solutions to automate grain and oilseed post-trade execution processes, reducing costs needed to move agricultural and food products around the world. 

By Benjamin Ferrer