“Drought May Force Global Shift to Vegetarian Diet” According to SIWI/FAO Report

Humans derive about 20% of their protein from animal-based products now, but this may need to drop to just 5% to feed the extra 2 billion people expected to be alive by 2050, according to research by some of the world's leading water scientists.

27 Aug 2012 --- A report published by a group of leading water scientists predicts that the world’s population may have to switch almost completely to a vegetarian diet over the next 40 years if current patterns of drought continue.

Humans derive about 20% of their protein from animal-based products now, but this may need to drop to just 5% to feed the extra 2 billion people expected to be alive by 2050, according to research by some of the world's leading water scientists.

Authored by a dozen experts from The Stockholm International Water Institute, the Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations (FAO) and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the report provides new evidence that shows how continuing current trends in food production could lead to increased shortages and intense competition for scarce water resources in many regions across the world.

The report notes that 900 million people are hungry and two billion more people are under nourished in spite of the fact that per capita production continues to increase. With 70 per cent of all water withdrawals used in agriculture, growing more food to feed an additional 2 billion people by 2050 will place greater pressure on available water and land.

"Feeding everyone well is a primary challenge for this century. Overeating, undernourishment and waste are all on the rise and increased food production may face future constraints from water scarcity," said report editor Dr. Anders Jägerskog. "We will need a new recipe to feed the world in the future."

The authors spotlight a number of essential and largely overlooked challenges where dedicated action can help ensure food security to a growing global population with available water resources. These include improvements in on-farm water efficiency, reductions in losses and waste in the food supply chain, enhanced response networks to early warning systems for agricultural emergencies, and increased investment to close the gender gap in agricultural production.

The report also investigates the impact of the recent surge in foreign direct investment to lease land in developing countries on local and regional water resources, a phenomenon that requires more stringent regulation to ensure that the water and land rights of local farming communities are upheld.

Companies across the food industry are making efforts to show that they are cognizant of the global water situation. Nestlé chairman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has launched a new water blog detailing his response to the latest water shortage trends and outlining his company’s approach to the global difficulties. In a recent post he said: “With the prospect of a global food crisis looming, it is the time to understand and transform our chronic disregard for water.”

Brabeck-Letmathe also offered his own thoughts regarding the underlying causes of the drought, writing: “As droughts of similar severity have happened before in the 1930s, 1950s and 1980s, some experts have said that the situation is not down to climate change. Nor can it be fully explained by extreme weather patterns.

“This is that the natural buffer against drought – groundwater – is no longer available, due to decade-long overuse.”

A separate study from The International Water Management Institute (IWMI), also commissioned for the Stockholm conference found that small-scale irrigation schemes can protect millions of farmers from food insecurity and climate risks in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

The report suggested that expanding the use of smallholder water management techniques could increase yields up to 300 percent in some cases, and add tens of billions of US dollars to household revenues across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

“We’ve witnessed again and again what happens to the world’s poor—the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and already suffer from water scarcity—when they are at the mercy of our fragile global food system,” said Dr. Colin Chartres, director general of IWMI. “However, farmers across the developing world are increasingly relying on and benefitting from small-scale, locally-relevant water solutions.”