Russia targets China’s pork market: How might it impact EU food producers?

29 Aug 2024 --- Russia’s recent announcement that it plans to ramp up pork exports to China, an EU-dominated sector, represents a bold strategic move. It is also the latest installment in the ongoing trade tensions between Europe and China.

Russia’s National Union of Pig Breeders has revealed it wants to capture 10% of the Chinese pork market in the coming years to showcase its competitiveness.

The EU exports about 13% of its total pork production, most of which goes to East Asia and China. Russia’s plans could heavily impact EU pork producers. Svitlana Taran, an analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank, tells Food Ingredients First it was a “well-expected move from Russia.”

“Russia has been trying for years to capitalize on EU-China trade tensions, which are now happening due to the electric vehicles tariff situation. Should the EU be worried? Yes, as China is such a big market for them. But Brussels will be working hard in the background to try and de-escalate the situation with China,” she says.

EU-China trade tensions

In June, the Chinese government launched an anti-dumping probe into EU pork exports. This followed the conclusion of the European Commission’s investigation into imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

China also targeted French brandy imports in another trade dispute in January, and in June, it also threatened investigations into wine and dairy, the latter of which has since materialized. The categories are worth billions of dollars in trade.

Taran points out that if Russia does opt to ramp up exports to China and leverage the issues between Brussels and Beijing, it will also have to compete with Brazil, which is already one of the largest exporters to China.

The first batch of Russian pork arrived at a Chinese port in April.

China opens doors to Russia

Earlier this year, the Russian agricultural watchdog revealed that Russian pork exports to China could reach 100,000 tons by the end of 2024. This was after the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China lifted African Swine Fever (ASF) related restrictions on pork supplies from Russia in September 2023 after a risk assessment.

In February, Chinese authorities certified three Russian companies to ship pork to its shores, with the first batch of the meat arriving in the country in April.

Russia’s latest announcement is not its first brush with the EU on pork trade matters. In 2016, the WTO ruled that Russia’s ban on live pigs, fresh pork and other pig products from the EU was illegal. The ruling related to restrictions Russia imposed in early 2014 due to a limited number of ASF cases in areas in the EU close to the border with Belarus.

Playing by WTO rules

Taran says that relations between the EU and China have the potential to be resolved in the future, which would secure the EU’s stake in the Chinese pork market. She points to China filing a complaint with the WTO about the electric vehicle tariffs as a positive sign that the country wants to play within international rules.

“It at least shows that they are not completely disregarding the WTO,” she adds. “Ultimately, the nations are interdependent; they need each other for trade, and any bans would be painful for both parties. With the latest tensions, they are trying to demonstrate their importance and power to each other.”

The European Commission told Food Ingredients First last week that it continues to closely monitor the situation with China.

By Sade Laja

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