RaboResearch: Global poultry industry faces avian influenza challenges, geopolitical and trade tensions

Rising geopolitical tensions, potential changes in global trade policies and avian influenza will be a risk to the worldwide animal protein industry in 2025, flags RaboResearch. But the international poultry industry is poised for strong growth despite these difficulties.

According to the report, affordability, sustainability trends and strong demand in emerging markets such as markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa will drive robust growth in the poultry industry in 2025.

It is expected to grow by 2.5-3% in 2025, continuing its strong momentum from 2024 and returning to long-term global average market growth. Poultry’s affordability is significant as pressed consumers seek value for money in protein purchases. Meanwhile, it competes well against other proteins. 

“There are two long-term drivers with consumers in lower and lower-middle income group categories substituting more toward animal protein consumption when incomes rise (as it becomes affordable). Chicken is the best-positioned meat protein due to its relatively low price, its health and convenience positioning andimage, as well as fewer cultural restrictions for consumption. Emerging market chicken consumption growth is especially high in Southern and Southeast Asia followed by Latin America and Africa,” Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst, Animal Protein at RaboResearch, tells Food Ingredients First.

Additionally, increasing customer commitments to sustainability are driving a shift toward poultry in developed economies due to poultry’s relatively lower carbon dioxide footprint compared to other animal proteins. 

Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to lead this growth. However, developed markets, particularly Europe, will also see ongoing expansion, with Europe outpacing global market growth. 

“However, the success of the market will hinge on balanced supply growth,” notes Mulder. 

Avian influenza remains a concern

However, there are risks this year regarding avian influenza, which has been impacting global supplies for several years. According to RaboResearch, it remains “a significant issue and could disrupt local markets and global trade.” A new wave of cases is impacting central Europe and Northeast Asia. 

Countries have been increasing vaccination among poultry populations and boosting biosecurity measures to contain the spread of the disease.

“This (avian influenza) is an ongoing global business risk that will continue to impact global markets, locally and in trade, and lead to ongoing supply and price volatility. The biggest impact is in eggs, turkey, and ducks, with less in chicken. The key for producers is to keep focusing on the highest level of biosecurity and we will see gradual new tools to reduce risk, like vaccination, implemented.”

Volatile trade

Trade maintains a strong momentum despite rising volatility. 

Despite being predicted to remain strong, the global poultry trade will be influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and the subsequent trade tensions that can result from them. 

Speculation is mounting around the potential for US President-elect Donald Trump, who is due to be inaugurated later this month, and his track record of placing tariffs on foreign goods, including F&B products. Any changing trade relationships will likely create volatility in trade flows and prices.

“There are several levels here: short-term, with the main impact being via feed supply/pricing due to the Ukraine war, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea with the reshipping via the southern route, which impacts supply/pricing in Europe and the Middle East-Africa-Asia route, both for meat products and inputs (agri-commodities and feed additives).”

“The long-term impact might be a more polar world which will likely lead to less trade access, more polar investments and likely less efficient trade with higher prices.”

“Geopolitical tensions and trade issues will continue to challenge the industry. Particularly issues related to policy changes by the new US government and rising tensions between Europe and China,” Mulder adds.

Success in 2024 drives investment for the future

On the upside, the poultry industry’s strong financial performance in 2024 encouraged new investments. The most significant focus now is on expansion in the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, while European and North American investments are recovering. 

Brazil stands out as a strong emerging market driven by increasing exports. All of this is leading to local and international investments, but the supply of breeding stock is tight, which will negatively impact investments in some emerging markets, RaboResearch notes.