Brazil emerges as leading poultry player in volatile global market, finds RaboResearch

Brazil has emerged as the leading poultry exporter, capturing 90% of global trade growth in a sector experiencing a downturn, more trade restrictions, and higher volatility overall, according to RaboResearch’s World Poultry Map.

Thailand, China, Ukraine, and Russia have also emerged as key new players in the sector, which is expected to continue its slow growth trajectory—at a rate of 1% to 2% annually over the next five years—and experience price volatility.

Between 2018 and 2023, global poultry meat trade grew by 8%, or 1 million metric tons. The bank attributes this to the COVID-19 pandemic, avian influenza, and African Swine Fever, which continue to affect demand and trade. 

Global economic slowdown, high feed costs, and geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine war and trade frictions between Western countries and China, have further contributed to a volatile trade environment. Emerging markets’ focus on food security and limited new export market openings have also slowed growth. These factors are expected to continue impacting the sector. 

Global poultry trade is valued at US$32 billion (US$48 billion, including intra-EU trade) and is dominated by Brazil, the US, the EU, Thailand, and China. Brazil leads with a 30% share of global trade by value, followed by the US and the EU at 16% each. Brexit has boosted the EU’s market share by transforming the EU-UK trade stream into a global flow, according to RaboResearch.

Meanwhile, Thailand ranks fourth with a 13% share, while China, Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia complete the list of top exporters.

Brazil on top

The research shows that Brazil “stands out as the clear winner” in a market with limited increases in import volume. According to Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst—animal protein for RaboResearch, Brazil’s success is due to its cost-competitive advantages and strategic diversification of export markets. 

While countries like China, Mexico, the UK, and the Philippines have increased imports, others, such as Saudi Arabia and South Africa, have reduced them due to the implementation of food security strategies.

“Since 2020, the value of global poultry trade has increased by 20% to 25%, primarily due to higher prices, while trade volume growth has remained around 6%,” says Mulder. 

“The average poultry export price has risen from US$1400 per metric ton in 2004 to US$2400 per metric ton today.”

Factors such as export price inflation, higher production costs, a shift toward processed poultry, volatile shipping costs, and Brexit have influenced price levels. Thailand leads in export value, followed by China and Chile, due to their market access. 

The EU is next, benefiting from Brexit. Despite being the largest exporter, Brazil ranks in the middle for export value, with the US and Argentina at the lower end.

According to the research, Brazil is expected to increase its market share further, while Thai and Chinese exports will grow above the market average.

“Russia and Ukraine may also expand their market presence, while Argentina could reemerge as a major exporter if economic conditions stabilize. Emerging players like Paraguay, Vietnam, Colombia, and South Africa may gradually gain traction in global trade,” says the report.