Low-carb craze falls, bread makes a comeback
Experts say some low-carb foods would survive, just like low-fat and low-salt foods.
11/08/05 Along with the bankruptcy of Atkins Nutritionals Inc, the renewed sales of forbidden foods are evidence that the low-carb craze is over.
In its wake, food experts said, is a lingering "carb awareness" and interest in nutrition that is driving demand for whole grains and natural foods.
Low-carbohydrate diets such as Atkins favour meat, eggs and green vegetables over white bread, pasta and fruit.
Food producers who were cast aside while consumers experimented with bacon and eggs are cheering the change.
It is possible, some experts said, that America's notoriously faddish approach to dieting may be giving way to a more reasoned attitude.
Experts say some low-carb foods will survive, just like low-fat and low-salt foods. Kraft is betting that its 29 products based on the South Beach Diet, which eschews some of the same foods as Atkins, will be among them. It expects the line to bring in more than $US100 million this year. On the other hand, it has stopped producing some CarbWell cookies, cereals and cereal bars.
People who track food trends say low-carb dieting peaked in early 2004.
Marketing experts who survey consumers have chronicled the change as well. NPD found that only 2.2% of Americans were on a low-carb diet in July, down from 9.1% in February 2004.
Opinion Dynamics Corp found that the number of people who say they are on a low-carb diet has not changed much: It was about 14% in northern spring 2004 and 13% in July. What has changed is the way the "dieters" are eating.
Back in 2004, for example, more than 40% of low-carb dieters said they rarely or never ate potatoes.
Now, 20% say that. The percentage of dieters who occasionally eat pasta rose from 46% in 2004 to 67% this year.
What may have done Atkins in, aside from vigorous competition from some major corporations, is that many people were never looking for low-carb alternatives to high-carb foods, said Larry Shiman, Opinion Dynamics' vice-president.
Plus, it is no surprise that most people cannot stick to a highly restrictive diet.
All this is good news for the purveyors of high-carb foods.
According to Information Resources Inc, sales of pasta have been higher than in the previous year for the last three quarters. Bread sales have been rising slowly for the last year. Meanwhile, sales of breakfast meats have been falling for the last 26 weeks.
Over the last 11 months, Idaho farmers have shipped 500,000 more 20 kg sacks of potatoes than they did over that same time period last year - a one per cent increase, said Frank Muir, president and CEO of the Idaho Potato Commission.
In the last two years, his group spent $US6 million advertising the health benefits of potatoes. There was no mourning for the Atkins company in Idaho.
Pepperidge Farm's low-carb bread, introduced in May 2004, got off touring the last quarter were 11% below the previous 12 weeks, Redmond said. Sales of white breads were down 5.6% during that time period. But sales of the company's whole grain and brown breads rose 20%.
Meanwhile, parent company Campbell is discontinuing its low-carb soups.
Todd Hultquist, a spokesman for the Food Marketing Institute, a trade association for food retailers and wholesalers, said the natural and organic sector was growing rapidly in mainstream food stores, a response to competition from grocers like Whole Foods.
Interest in nutrition is high enough that some stores now have "Ask the Nutritionist" days, he said. Convenience foods such as bagged salads and vegetables or sliced apples are selling well.
