Global food systems research shows price volatility persists despite steady rise in production

The volatility of food prices has worsened since 2000 while yields for fruit, vegetables, beef and dairy have increased, according to a multi-year analysis of key food system indicators.

The Food Systems Countdown Initiative — a collaboration of experts and organizations coordinated by Columbia University, Cornell University, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the UN and the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) — conducted the peer-reviewed research.

The indicators used in the research are provided by FSCI and cover five thematic areas: diets, nutrition and health, environment, natural resources and production, livelihoods, poverty and equity, governance, and resilience. Case studies from Ethiopia, Mexico and the Netherlands have put local contexts into perspective.

The research finds that out of 42 indicators analyzed over time, 20 have improved.

“This new report reveals a mix of encouraging advancements and concerning setbacks, underscoring the urgency of accelerating food systems transformation. Trade-offs are inevitable between food system goals such as jobs, climate, nutrition, food security and resilience,” says Lawrence Haddad, executive director of GAIN.

“But with stronger governance and better data, these trade-offs can be mitigated and even flipped into synergies. This report helps us to understand how to do this and accelerate progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).”

Food availability marred by price

The improvements include conserving plant and animal genetic resources and water availability and making food systems more resilient to climate shocks and other disruptions.

Agricultural boosts, such as increased fruit, meat, milk and cereal yields, have enhanced food availability, while dairy and beef-linked emissions have recorded a desirable decline.

Seven indicators show vulnerabilities in food price stability and government accountability. While fewer people are undernourished, the cost of maintaining a healthy diet is rising, making it harder for many to eat well.

More people are facing severe to moderate food insecurity, while the use of pesticides is a major concern.

The authors highlight that changes in one area linked to food systems, such as diets, can have consequences for another, such as the environment.

“For example, maximizing crop and livestock productivity through intensive systems has not only led to increased food availability but also contributed to environmental degradation, declining diet quality for some populations and increased inequality between small- and large-holder production systems,” the study notes.

The experts emphasize that studying these interactions is critical in managing trade-offs and limiting unintended consequences.

Jessica Fanzo, professor of Climate and director of the Food for Humanity Initiative at Columbia Climate School, says: “We need wholesale reform of our food systems so we can provide the world’s population with the nutritious food needed to grow and develop. We are facing a syndemic of challenges: increasing diet-related disease, continued undernutrition and a changing climate.”

“Combating these requires significant and rapid change. This study is so important because it shows the speed of change so far to guide more action because we can only manage what we measure.”

Regulatory wins and losses

The study examines the role of local governance initiatives in fighting unhealthy food environments.

For example, the experts note that Mexico’s tax on added sugars and requirement for warning labels on products containing unhealthy amounts of added sugars and energy density have reduced soft drink consumption and sales of ultra-processed foods.

According to the research, most countries employ economic and/or legal tools to improve the “healthfulness” of food environments, but the majority of sub-Saharan Africa and many Central Asian countries are exceptions to this.

As a result, the latest indicator status shows that insufficient food governance contributes to unhealthy diet outcomes in regions like Central Asia, where the consumption of energy drinks and sodas is the highest in the world.

José Rosero Moncayo, chief statistician and director of the Statistics Division at the FAO, concludes: “As we enter the final five years of the SDG process, we have to double down on areas of progress while addressing persistent gaps, keeping the interconnectedness of food systems at the forefront.”