GAIN warns of sky-high food prices and insecurity in Ukraine and Africa brought on by war

10 Mar 2022 --- Overseas funding must double to stop hunger in Ukraine, north Africa and regions south of the Sahara, according to the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN). It warns that devastated supply chains in Ukraine and Russia are cutting off wheat, corn, sunflower oil and barley exports, while rising food prices mean that millions will not be able to afford nutrient-rich foods.

Exports of these crops from the Ukraine will dwindle and already show severe signs of strain as the war further depletes food supplies for and from the region, the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) has warned.

“These foods will all become scarce outside these countries as supply chains are devastated inside Ukraine and food for export is diverted to domestic consumption in Ukraine and Russia because imports of other food staples into those two countries are being cut off,” Dr. Lawrence Haddad, executive director, GAIN tells FoodIngredientsFirst. 

Foods whose production depends on the exports of Russian nitrogen and potassium fertilizers will also be in shorter supply. This will mean a wide range of foods in several countries will become more difficult or more expensive to get. Africa is particularly dependent on these fertilizers.

“Because of higher prices of foods and fuels throughout the world, many additional millions of people will not be able to afford food – even if it is in the markets – especially the more nutrient rich foods such as fruits, vegetables, pulses, eggs, dairy and fish. This will lead to strongly rising hunger and malnutrition rates,” explains Haddad.

Bracing for sky-high food pricesHigher food and fuel prices will lower people’s spending abilities for necessities such as clean water, sanitation and health care.
Higher food and fuel prices will lower people’s spending abilities for other necessities such as clean water, sanitation and health care. Pre-war, food prices were already at the highest levels since 1975. 

According to GAIN, the loss of food production and exports from Ukraine, and to some extent Russia, will push world food prices up as the lack of supply fails to meet demand. 

High energy prices due to the loss of production, trade and the sanctions imposed will do the same, making food production, distribution and preparation more costly. 

Pre-war circumstances worsened the exports coupled with the effects of COVID-19 and climate change. 

“These staple foods are mainly important sources of calories but they are also sources of micronutrients (vitamins and minerals like iron and zinc). Non-staple foods such as fruits, vegetables, legumes, fish and nuts are even better sources of essential nutrients,” Haddad says. 

“A good balance of calories, protein, fats, micronutrients and fiber is essential for human development and the prevention of illness. Good nutrition keeps immune systems strong, is vital for bone and muscle development and for brain and central nervous system development in infants.” 

GAIN proposes trade and finance solutions
GAIN proposes solutions to help mitigate the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For example, the amount of overseas development finance, public and private, directed at ending hunger needs to double. 

Food trade should keep flowing. Exporting countries must resist the temptation to hoard exports, “that simply leads to a race to the bottom for all”. Food production sites around the world need to diversify.

“The war has shown the fragility of depending on a few breadbaskets – there needs to be many. For example, Africa has immense agricultural potential, but the Malabo agricultural investment and policy targets its governments have set for themselves are not being met,” he says.Dr. Lawrence Haddad, executive director, GAIN. 

“We have never known so much about where and what to invest in to get hunger numbers down from 768 million today to less than 200 million by 2030. We know what to do, now we need to fund it.,” Haddad suggests. 

Hard look at supply chains and tech
Nations are encouraged to protect their supply chains especially in the places most likely to be hit by this crisis, specifically Ukraine, north Africa and Africa south of the Sahara.

“Your (nations) SME suppliers do not have the resilience the large companies do. If you want them to be loyal and to bounce back once demand picks up then pay them promptly, provide them with low interest loans, provide advance market guarantees, and help them take care of the nutrition of their own workers,” Haddad advises. 

 Technologies to reduce food loss and waste are important – when food is particularly scarce, none of it can be wasted. Fortification of grains, edible oil and salt is a highly effective way of delivering key micronutrients to vulnerable populations.

“Of course an acceleration of the development and use of renewable energy technologies in producing, processing and distributing food will be helpful in the medium run,” he says.

Rapid relief for hunger and malnutrition
GAIN is expecting unprecedented annual rises in hunger and malnutrition. The organization is calling for heightened funding efforts globally to help regions in need of food supplies. 

“Now, they will rise even further. If we do not act, the number of people experiencing hunger will likely rise toward one billion and the number of people that are at risk of malnutrition will likely rise to half of the world’s population,” explains Haddad. 

Haddad urges: “We need more money for humanitarian hunger and malnutrition relief. The increased funding requests from the World Food Program and others must be met rapidly. 

Humanitarian aid needs to do more to provide not just food, but nutritious and safe food containing the micronutrients that are so essential for human development, states GAIN. 

“Most importantly, we must protect the nutrition status of the very youngest and deny the Ukraine war a terrible intergenerational legacy,” urges Haddad.

By Inga de Jong