Climate change already causing “significant yield variation in world’s top 10 crops,” says new study

06 Jun 2019 --- Crop yields have long been projected to decline as the rapid onset of climate change impacts agriculture, the production of key energy sources and ultimately food security. But now a new study shows that climate change has already affected the production of the world’s top 10 crops – and some regions and countries are faring far worse than others.

Led by University of Minnesota researchers, in collaboration with the University of Oxford and the University of Copenhagen, the study investigated yields of barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat, which supply a combined 83 percent of all calories produced on cropland. 

The study, published in the scientific journal PLOS ONE, observed that climate change causes a significant yield variation in these crops, ranging from a decrease of 13.4 percent for oil palm to an increase of 3.5 percent for soybean. The findings show an average reduction of approximately one percent (-3.5 x 10e13 kcal/year) of consumable food calories from these ten crops. 

The research team used weather and reported crop data to evaluate the potential impact of observed climate change. 

“The key takeaways of our research will help industry leaders when they are sourcing regions for specific crops and what they can expect impacts on crop yields to be in the near future,” Deepak Ray, a senior scientist at the University of Minnesota Institute on the Environment, tells FoodIngredientsFirst. 

“For example, the study shows losses in crop yields in Western Europe and Australia, specifically Western Australia, which is a big exporter in wheat. Industry leaders can strategically adjust who and how much expected changes on average in production may occur in their sourcing regions.”

2018 was marked as a year where the debate surrounding climate change really ramped up. This was evidenced through several high profile studies that came to fruition such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and warnings from the InterAcademy Partnership (IAP) which calls for a total transformation of how systems operate as agriculture and consumer choices are major factors driving “disastrous climate change.” Reducing meat consumption and changing dietary habits are also touted, by some, as a way of slowing the negative impact of climate change. Last December also saw the UN Climate Change Conference, COP24, hosted in Poland. 

Progressing through 2019 and climate change, and its impact on food security (in particular the sustainable of raw materials including agricultural crops), is still very much top-of-mind within the food industry. The year began with Davos 2019 where supplier sustainability was on the agenda, particularly how the food ingredients sector can be a “real game-changer” in this regard. And in February, the first ever International Food Safety Conference (IFSC) was held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 

Insights like the findings of this latest study can also lead to new questions and to help shape the next steps.

“We attempted to provide numbers in greater detail across a wider variety of crops for current conditions and empirical evidence,” Ray continues. “What we have tried is to establish a broad understanding of crop yields and then follow up with nuances on a local level around the world. Next steps in studying this topic are detecting the contribution of impacts within seasons and extreme events,” he says. 

Other key findings of the research – winners and losers

The study also notes how the impact of climate change on global food production is mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia, while it is generally positive in Latin America and mixed in Asia and Northern and Central America.

Half of all food-insecure countries are experiencing decreases in crop production, including several affluent industrialized countries in Western Europe. In contrast, climate change has increased certain crop yields in areas of the upper Midwest US.

High-resolution global crop statistics databases have also been used to help to identify how global crop production changes over time and indicate which geographical areas and crops are most at risk. This is of particular interest to stakeholders working to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals of ending hunger and limiting the effects of climate change, he notes. 

“This is a very complex system, so a careful statistical and data science modeling component is crucial to understand the dependencies and cascading effects of small or large changes,” says co-author Snigdhansu Chatterjee of the University of Minnesota’s School of Statistics.

The Institute’s Global Landscapes Initiative has previously produced global scale findings that have been put to use by the UN, World Bank and Brookings in the evaluation of global food security and environmental challenges. The scholars say this report has implications for major food companies, commodity traders and the countries in which they operate.

Shallow returns 
Meanwhile, a new report from Farm Animal Investment Risk and Return (FAIRR), a network backed by investors managing more than US$12 trillion, details how climate change threatens the fast-growing global fishing farming sector. 

Entitled Shallow Returns, the report describes how the US$232 billion global aquaculture sector is the main provider of seafood. It warns how climate change and antibiotics are sustainability risks. The report says that the fish sector is exposed to the impacts of climate change as well as contributes to it. 

Average per capita seafood consumption has doubled since the 1960s and since 2014, aquaculture has provided more of global seafood production than fisheries, according to the report. It is taking a bite out of other protein industries as well, it notes. The annual growth rate of fish consumption surpasses that of meat from all terrestrial animals combined.

As the world considers how to feed an additional 2.2 billion mouths between now and 2050, an increase in farmed seafood is increasingly seen as a large part of the solution. Especially in emerging Asian economies where consumers are shifting from vegetable-based to protein-rich diets. China’s aquaculture production has tripled in two decades and growth is set to continue. 

The report notes how the Chinese government is encouraging consolidation of this historically very fragmented industry to increase its market access, moving from small-scale, extensive production to greater adoption of intensive systems that feature high-stocking densities. The report explains why aquaculture must overcome an array of environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks before it should be considered a sustainable solution to meeting the growing global demand for protein. These risks could have a significant impact on the future growth and financial performance of aquaculture companies.

By Gaynor Selby