Boost for baking ingredients this Easter as COVID-19 spins traditional food celebrations

09 Apr 2020 --- The ongoing coronavirus outbreak is creating fluctuations and unexpected increases in demand for some foods and ingredients. In the UK specifically, a wave of panic buying and stockpiling food products disrupted the food supply in previous weeks with an obvious shortage of eggs and flour, suggesting that many consumers are trying their hand at baking from home. FoodIngredientsFirst speaks with key suppliers from the sector who note that traditional Easter celebrations are being eschewed. Additionally, fluctuations in demand for ingredients could lead to unforeseen impacts in supply chains in the coming months.

“We know that consumers prefer baked goods that are authentic, ‘real’ and crafted, even before the outbreak of COVID-19. However, sustainable ingredients aren’t high on consumers’ lists right now as they search primarily for staple items and stock up on foods they can store for longer periods of time,” JoAnn Rupp, Global Market Insights Manager at Corbion tells FoodIngredientsFirst. 

Nostalgia and indulgence at the fore
With shopping habits in a tilt, many sustainable goods are falling by the wayside. Only those sustainable practices that have a low cost associated with them, such as composting or the purchase of “ugly” or wonky fruits, are likely to continue unabated. “Organic food and beverages are likely to see a downturn as consumers turn to comfort foods and staple pantry items, with Innova Market Insights data from 2018 showing that 53 percent of consumers buy sweet baked goods for indulgence. Over the Easter holiday, we anticipate we’ll continue to see this play out as consumers choose nostalgic and indulgent items to serve at home with organic and sustainable ingredients,” Rupp highlights. 

“Some of the typical Easter traditions will likely be eschewed in favor of activities that can be done at home,” he further comments. Innova Market Insights data from 2019 shows that consumers are looking for food and beverages that provide them with “a feeling of comfort,” Rupp adds. “We believe this to be the case this year especially, as consumers look for foods that offer them nostalgia, tradition and ways to indulge. With around 83 percent of consumers we polled responding that they celebrate Easter, it’s likely we’ll see an increase in home baking this year, with a focus on foods like cinnamon rolls, sweet breads, cupcakes and pies.”

As home bakers warm up their ovens, they’ll likely be cooking for nostalgia and indulgence.It’s also reasonable to assume that as home bakers warm up their ovens, they’ll be looking for more familiar brands to provide them with indulgent, comfort foods to bake, she asserts.

As the COVID-19 outbreak nears its anticipated peak in most of Europe and the US, Rupp flags the importance of being aware of the accessibility of certain ingredients as supply chains fluctuate throughout the world. 

“The availability [or unavailability] of ingredients may have unforeseen impacts on food ingredient trends for 2020, so we think it’s wise for bakers to ensure they have access to several different suppliers in case a disruption should occur,” she continues. “As it becomes more apparent which supplies will be scarce, we anticipate bakers will need to be creative in adapting to the realities of today’s pandemic-driven consumer behavior, while preparing for the shopping habits of tomorrow,” she says. 

Unexpected demand for ingredients
“The ongoing coronavirus situation is creating fluctuations and unexpected increases in demand and sales of food ingredients. We have seen a clear increase in food ingredients for bakery products in the last week or so – both existing customers ordering in larger quantities, and new customers looking for supplies,” Tasneem Alonzo, Managing Director, Lähde brand by EHL Ingredients, tells FoodIngredientsFirst. 

She flags a major increase in demand and sales of ingredients for baking. “Plain flour and sugar are selling out in large quantities, as expected, but more customers are coming to us for alternative flours for vegan and gluten-free bakery products,” Alonzo explains. 

Meanwhile, flours derived from ancient grains, such as teff, millet, quinoa and spelt have seen a surge in sales, as well as flours for sweet bakery – almond, hazelnut and almond flour. “These are being used in non-allergen bakery products such as breads and loaves, biscuits and crackers, pie crusts, cakes and muffins. Consumers who follow a vegan, gluten-free or high protein diet will certainly be stocking up on these ingredients and foods containing them, while the nation is in lockdown,” Alonzo declares.  

With Easter on its way, EHL has also noted an increase in sales for its dried fruit ingredients such as currants, sultanas, mixed peel and cranberries for sweet seasonal baked goods. “Mixed spice, and sweet spices such as cinnamon, allspice, ginger and nutmeg are also experiencing a boost in sales,” she adds. “Trends for vegan, gluten-free and allergen-free baked goods are also gaining traction.”

“Seeds is another key ingredient trend we have noted, with poppy, sunflower, pumpkin, caraway, flax and chia being shipped out for bakery products,” Alonzo continues. “As well as being traditional seasonal ingredients in the UK, we are aware that speciality bakers and food producers stock up on seeds to make traditional products from around the world. For example, Makowiec is a traditional Polish poppy-seed loaf and is often eaten at celebrations including Easter,” she highlights.Seeds and grains are also expected to be key ingredients in bakery products.

As stocks of certain ingredients run low, Alonzo believes that consumers are happy to accept an alternative. “If we cannot get hold of certain ingredients from one country, we have contacts and reliable suppliers in other regions who we will work with to meet our customer requirements,” she adds. 

Under these circumstances, we expect to see retailers, bakeries and manufacturers to reduce their ranges and rationalize the quantity of products they produce, to focus on a few best-selling lines and standard dishes that are likely to be in demand by shoppers, Alonzo further notes.

Last week, the UK-based supplier of herbs, spices and dried goods, noted a sharp rise in kitchen cupboard staple products such as rice, flours, lentils and grains, which were being shipped out to retailers and manufacturers across the UK.

Challenges ahead?
Although retail bakers are recording rising sales of baked goods, they’re missing out on the revenue derived from the high-margin coffee and snack business. That is according to Michael Gusko, Managing Director of GoodMills Innovation, who says the medium-term consequences depend on how long curfews and shutdowns last. “A lockdown lasting several months will result in a wave of insolvencies,” he states. 

“Everyone needs to eat, even in a crisis, but we can’t all play an equal role in terms of how much we can contribute,” Gusko continues. “Owing to the fact that more food is being eaten at home, the retail trade and its suppliers will certainly benefit. By contrast, as a result of company closures, the traditional catering industry will suffer dramatically,” he explains. 

“Together with our sister companies, the GoodMills mills, we are one of the systemically important suppliers of basic foodstuffs,” comments Gusko. As such, an international supply of raw materials is guaranteed, he adds. “Owing to a strong order pipeline, we’ve actually expanded our regular shift operations. Of course, local restrictions on international border traffic and extremely long waiting times will cause problems, and might mean that not enough truck drivers are available. Here, however, we benefit from the fact that grain delivery to almost all of our nine locations in Germany is trimodal; it can be delivered by truck, rail or ship, which provides additional security of supply,” he details. 

Tortillas are also a great vehicle for a number of foods and have longer shelf life than some other baked goods such as breads.The coronavirus crisis shows how vulnerable the global economy is and has exposed weaknesses in our systems and societies. It’s possible that the epidemic will put an end to the general carelessness often seen when handling food, according to Gusko. “For example, for the millennial generation, stockpiling has not been a major issue so far. Or, take supply chain security; if we shift the production of raw materials and products to low-cost geographies, such China or India, we may gain access to cheaper ingredients. But, in the event of a crisis, we may not be able to source any raw materials at all,” he asserts. 

Batch packs and extended shelf life
Outside of the traditional bakery sector, Courtney Schwartz, Marketing Director for Food Technologies at Kemin says the recent changes caused by COVID-19 have led to increased business for the company’s Foods Division, specifically its batch packs and dough conditioners and softeners for tortillas and flatbreads. “Tortilla manufacturers have seen a significant surge in demand. Tortillas are a great vehicle for a number of foods and have longer shelf life than some other baked goods such as breads,” she tells FoodIngredientsFirst. 

The flavor varieties, size options, convenience and cost effectiveness of tortillas and flatbreads make them a great addition to almost any meal or snack. “We are seeing low-carb, high-fiber and enriched protein wraps emerge and grow as well – which gives Kemin the opportunity to provide manufacturers a variety of solutions to meet the needs their consumers are demanding,” explains Schwartz. 

From clean label to traditional, cost-effective solutions, Kemin is working to get customer orders out as fast as they come in, she maintains. “We recognize the importance of providing safe and effective ingredients to the industry during this time of uncertainty and will remain dedicated to doing our part to keep safe and nutritious food available,” concludes Schwartz. 

By Elizabeth Green