Researchers Investigate How to Feed Africa in the Future

13 Dec 2016 --- A team of Wageningen University researchers collaborating with several African institutes and the University of Nebraska, have concluded that in 2050 when Africa’s population has grown two and half times larger than now, the continent will barely be able to grow enough food to feed its population, even if much higher yields are achieved on all current cropland.

The study says that although further expansion into uncultivated areas is likely, it’s very risky due to biodiversity loss and increased greenhouses gas emissions. The findings were published in the journal PNAS of this week.

Agricultural yields per hectare in sub-Saharan Africa are currently low. For example, the maize yield is only 20 percent of the potential yield with good management. In comparison, the yield in the Netherlands or USA is 80 percent of the potential yield. Although extensive farming now satisfies most of the African population's demand for grain, in the next few decades the African population will grow by a factor of 2.6 and grain demands even 3.4 times. Therefore in 2050 self-sufficiency on existing farm and is only feasible if the yield per hectare will rise to 80 percent of the potential, just as in the Netherlands or the United States.

During the past decade, the maize yield per hectare was less than two tons, with a very small annual increase (approximately 30 kg per hectare). In 2050, the yield must be approximately seven tons per hectare. As a result, an annual increase in yield per hectare of 130 kg must be achieved – and it must start now.

“In addition, there are still possibilities to grow multiple crops per year and to expand the irrigated area, but these are options with many uncertainties,” says principal investigator Martin van Ittersum of Wageningen University & Research.

If crop yields cannot be increased then the alternative is for major farmland expansion which will adversely affect natural habitats and increase greenhouse gas emissions. Another scenario is for huge amounts of grain to be imported, a costly measure for African nations.

In some countries, the required area is simply not available, and expansion of farmland is not sustainable, explains one of the researchers, Professor Abdullahi Bala from Nigeria. Van Ittersum adds: “You still hear people say that Africa can become a major grain basket of the world, but it may be very challenging for Africa to remain even self-sufficient in the future.”

“Large investments are required in research and development, in the private and public sectors, to increase production while limiting environmental impact.”

According to the international research team including, Kindie Tesfaye from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) in Ethiopia, a rapid intensification of African farming is needed.

Tesfaye says options that will lead to improved yields, such as grain varieties that are adapted to local conditions, and improved fertilization and control of diseases and pests, including parasitic plants. He also stresses the importance of improved farming with multiple crops per year and the expansion of sustainable irrigation.

The research collected data from 10 African countries which accommodate 54 percent of the total population of sub-Saharan Africa and which contain 58 percent of the total cropland on this part of the continent. They mapped out the production and demand for five major grains – maize, millet, rice, sorghum and wheat – in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. They consider it unlikely that the situation is more favorable in other African countries because there the availability of arable land per capita is slightly lower.

The research was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the Global Yield Gap Atlas, a project that is jointly led by Wageningen University & Research and the University of Nebraska at Lincoln in the United States.

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