Plant-based transition could slash farm labor and boost horticulture
Key takeaways
- Oxford researchers found that shifting to more plant-based diets could cut global agricultural labor needs by 5–28% by 2030.
- Lower-income countries may need up to 56 million more workers to grow fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts as horticultural demand rises.
- The study urges policy support, retraining, and investment in horticulture to ensure fair transitions as global food systems move toward sustainability.
A UK study reveals that transitioning to plant-based diets could reduce global agricultural labor requirements by 5–28% by 2030, mainly due to decreased demand for livestock production. However, policy and planning will be crucial to ensure “fair” transitions toward healthier and more sustainable eating habits.
The findings come at a time when the F&B industry is waking up to the need for sustainable practices, with Innova Market Insights’ research revealing that 38% of consumers globally are concerned about climate change and its impact on food systems. This, in turn, is driving efforts at both the country and company levels to tackle issues such as livestock emissions.
The “global rebalancing” of food production could slash agricultural labor costs by US$290–995 billion each year, equal to around 0.2–0.6% of global GDP, notes the study, conducted by the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI).
The study combined detailed global data on farm labor with a “biophysical food-system model” to estimate labor needs for 20 types of foods worldwide, by region and country. It claims to be the “first” detailed, country-level assessment of how dietary change affects farming jobs across 179 countries.
“We searched the literature for studies on labor requirements per food group and sector. The searches were carried out between June 2022 and January 2025,” reads the study.
The team used information from farm surveys, national statistics, farm planning guides, benchmarking tools, and scientific studies.
Diet changes and labor
The researchers analyzed how flexitarian, pescatarian (vegetarian diets including seafood), vegetarian, and vegan diets could impact agricultural employment by combining detailed labor data for crops and livestock with global food production models.
They found that countries that rely heavily on livestock farming would see the largest drops in labor demand. Meanwhile, lower-income nations — where agriculture is a significant source of employment — could require 18–56 million more workers to produce fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts, and other plant-based foods.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, examines the need for significant changes in diets and food systems to mitigate climate change and achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Need for policy and strategic support
Dr. Marco Springmann, senior researcher at the ECI and the study’s lead, says that dietary change doesn’t just affect human health and the planet — it also has a significant impact on people’s livelihoods.
“Moving away from meat-heavy diets reduces the need for labor in animal production but increases demand in horticulture and food services. Consistent strategies and political support will be needed to enable just transitions both into and out of agricultural labor.”
The researchers call for “retraining, redeployment, and investment” in horticultural production to support workers and rural communities as food systems evolve. They note that the wage estimates are for illustrative purposes only and “do not include potential economic feedback,” such as changes in wages or prices.
The analysis focuses only on primary production and excludes processing or jobs beyond the farm level.
Plant-based diet shifts would require up to 56 million more workers in lower-income countries to grow fruits, vegetables, and legumes, says the study.
