Eating Less Meat May Not Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Claim Researchers

20 Jan 2016 --- New research has found reduced meat consumption might not lower greenhouse gas emissions from one of the world's biggest beef producing regions. The finding may seem incongruous, as intensive agriculture is responsible for such a large proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions.

According to research by University of Edinburgh, Scotland's Rural College (SRUC) and Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), reducing beef production in the Brazilian Cerrado could actually increase global greenhouse gas emissions. The findings were published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Eating less meat is essentially a consumer decision, with all the industry farms/supermarkets and all between is enable choice for those who want to exercise it, says Prof Dominic Moran, of the SRUC, "To some extent this is what is happening, with some suppliers and retailers being more discriminating about production methods and emissions intensity of product," Moran tells FoodIngredientsFirst. "This may eventually lead to labels and price premiums as some consumers may be willing to pay for the low carbon (and other) attribute(s). In a nutshell the industry needs to have an awareness of the systematic effect we investigate in the paper.  The narrative is a bit more complex than expecting a clear outcome in response to lower consumption.”

Lead author Rafael Silva, of the University of Edinburgh's School of Mathematics, explains: "Much of Brazil's grassland is in poor condition, leading to low beef productivity and high greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. However, increasing demand for meat provides an incentive for farmers to recover degraded pastures. This would boost the amount of carbon stored in the soil and increase cattle productivity. It would require less land for grazing and reduce deforestation, potentially lowering emissions."

While grasslands are not as effective as forests at storing carbon, Brazilian grass - mostly Brachiaria genus - has a greater capacity to do so than grass found in Europe, due to its long roots. High quality grasslands will cause more carbon to be stored in the soil, which will lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions. Grassland improvement involves chemical and mechanical treatment of the soil, and use of better adapted seeds along with calcium, limestone and nitrogen fertilisers. Most Brazilian grassland soils are acidic, requiring little nitrogen.

Prof Moran adds: “Brazil is the first major developing country to recognize that it can build in the benefits of low carbon agriculture (or implement so-called sustainable intensification) into its global commitments on emissions reduction.  They have done this already at the recent UN climate conference in Paris." Moran goes on to say: "In essence they are slowly finding a way to accommodate competing demands of increased livestock production, on less land, avoiding deforestation, with an overall cut in greenhouse gas emissions.  While it lasts, it’s a great achievement.  Some say the looming economic crisis may upset this balance, but we’ll see."

In the case of the Brazilian Cerrado, reduced meat consumption could remove the incentive for grassland improvement and therefore lead to higher emissions. The researchers worked out that if demand for beef is 30% higher by 2030 compared with current estimates, net emissions would decrease by 10%. Reducing demand by 30% would lead to 9% higher emissions, provided the deforestation rates are not altered by a higher demand. However, if deforestation rates increase along with demand, emissions could increase by as much as 60%.

Prof Moran, says: "The message of our research is to beware of unintended consequences. In some production regions, shifting to less meat-dependent diets would help curb climate change, but it is important to understand the nature of different production systems before concluding that reduced consumption will have the same effects in all systems."

by Elizabeth Kenward