Cost of Obesity Set to Surge, US Clinically Obese Levels to Rise to 50% by 2030

The Lancet also warned that Britain, too, will see a surge in obesity prevalence. By 2030, as many as 11 million more British adults will be obese, 3.3 million of them aged more than 60.

Aug 26 2011 --- The global obesity epidemic has been escalating for decades, yet long-term prevention efforts have barely begun and are inadequate, according to a new paper from international public health experts published in The Lancet. Noting that many countries lack basic population-wide data on children's weight and height, the authors call on governments around the world to launch a coordinated effort to monitor, prevent, and control obesity, and the long-term health, social and economic costs associated with it.

The paper is part of a special Lancet series on obesity.

"By imposing tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and limiting marketing of unhealthy foods to children, governments can lead in making it easier for children to make healthy choices," said lead author Steven Gortmaker, professor of the practice of health sociology at Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH).

Special taxes and marketing restrictions to discourage smoking have been effective in tobacco control and likely would be effective in reducing SSB consumption, the authors note. Consuming sugar-sweetened beverages increases risk of excess weight gain and obesity which can lead to a host of health problems, including type 2 diabetes—and SSBs have no additional nutritional value beyond calories, Gortmaker and his colleagues say.

International organizations like the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and others must participate with the public and private sector to target children and adolescents, in particular, with these and other cost-effective strategies that encourage healthy eating habits and physical activity, the authors say.

In the last 30 years, obesity, defined as a body-mass index (BMI) of more than 30 in adults, has increased globally in both rich and poor countries and in all segments of society. (BMI is weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters.) In a companion commentary, William Dietz, director of the Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, writes that if U.S. trends based on historical data for 1988 continue, obesity among U.S. adults will increase from its current level of approximately 32% to approximately 50% by 2030. The increased costs of treating obesity-associated diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, will reach $66 billion annually in the U.S. by 2030.

The Lancet also warned that Britain, too, will see a surge in obesity prevalence, rising from 26 percent to 41-48 percent in men, and in women from 26 percent to 35-43 percent. By 2030, as many as 11 million more British adults will be obese, 3.3 million of them aged more than 60.

Obesity trends and physical activity need closer monitoring in all countries, including high-income countries. Most countries still need basic data: Only a third of European Union nations have representative data on children's weight and height. Few countries have set targets for obesity rates, changes in dietary intake, or physical activity. In addition, efforts taken by the food industry to reformulate products and undertake other measures to encourage healthier eating should be independently assessed for effectiveness, the authors say.

Gortmaker and his colleagues call for action at multiple levels of society. They provide a list of interventions aimed at children, adolescents, and adults that have been estimated to be cost-effective. In addition to taxes on unhealthy food and drink and restrictions on junk food and beverage TV advertising to children, the authors recommend school-based education and nutrition and physical activity programs for children and some weight loss interventions.

The Lancet Obesity Series precedes the first High-Level Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly focused on non-communicable disease prevention and control, set for September 19-20, 2011, in New York City. The authors said the meeting "is an important opportunity for the international community to provide the leadership, global standards, and cross-agency structures needed to create a global food system that offers a healthy and a secure food supply for all."

Support for the paper was provided by the National Collaborative on Childhood Obesity Research, which coordinates childhood obesity research across the National Institutes of Health (NIH), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the NIH, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

In response to the Lancet's Obesity Series, Terry Jones, the UK Food and Drink Federation's Director of Communications said: “The Lancet fails to recognise the lengths to which the UK food and drink industry has gone to help improve the health of the nation, particularly in relation to rising obesity levels.

“Earlier this year we were pleased to have been a founding signatory of the Government's Public Health Responsibility Deal, demonstrating our commitment to a multi-stakeholder and coordinated approach to improving public health. We bring with us our track record of achievement in key areas such as the reformulation of products – an area where the UK is now widely recognised as leading the world, the provision of clear consumer information and our drive to support our own workforce to make healthier choices.

“On product reformulation, the UK food and drink industry has been ahead of the game for a long time in reducing salt, energy and fat in it's products. Achievements so far include a 9% reduction in the amount of salt and fat consumed by households since 2006, and via the Responsibility Deal, our members have committed to reduce levels even further where technologically possible, safe and acceptable to consumers.

"We recognise the significant threat that obesity poses to society and have taken a proactive role in improving health. Food companies are well aware of the complex diet, lifestyle and health challenges facing society and understand the high expectations that policy makers, regulators and campaigners have of the entire food industry. Though the Responsibility Deal initiative is still in its infancy, we firmly believe that as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development made clear last year 'co-operation between government and industry is the single most critical link in a multi stakeholder approach.”

"Changing the Future of Obesity: Science, Policy, and Action," Steven L. Gortmaker, Boyd A. Swinburn, David Levy, Rob Carter, Patricia L. Mabry, Diane T. Finegood, Terry Huang, Tim Marsh, Marjory L. Moodie, The Lancet: Vol. 378, August 2011.