Conflicts and people displacement take toll on food security, says new FAO report

21 Sep 2018 --- High levels of severe food insecurity, particularly in Southern African and Near East countries, is being driven by constant conflicts and climate-related shocks which continue to require humanitarian assistance, according to a new report published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). And there are 39 countries, 31 of which are in Africa, seven in Asia and one in the Caribbean (Haiti), all in need of external food assistance.

This situation remains unchanged from three months ago, according to the Crop Prospects and Food Situation report which also expects a slightly lower global cereal production.

FAO stresses that protracted conflicts, extreme weather events and displacement continue to hamper food access for millions of vulnerable people. According to the report, civil conflicts and population displacement remain the key drivers of food insecurity in East Africa and the Near East, whereas dry-weather conditions reduced cereal outputs in Southern Africa.

Lower global cereal production forecast
FAO's latest forecast for global cereal production in 2018 is pegged at 2,587 million tons, a three-year low and 2.4 percent below last year's record high level.

Cereal production in the 52 Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) is projected this year at around 490 million tons, approximately 19 million above the past five-year average. 

The unchanged aggregate output reflects weather-reduced outputs in Southern Africa, Central Asia and the Near East that are foreseen to be offset by production gains in Far East Asia and East Africa.

Civil conflicts, often coupled with climate-related extreme events, have taken their toll on food security of vulnerable populations in Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen among others.

In Yemen, due to the ongoing conflict, an estimated 17.8 million people are food insecure and require urgent humanitarian assistance, a five percent jump from last year. 

In the Central African Republic, about 2 million people, or 43 percent of the total population, are estimated to be in need of urgent assistance for food due to the civil conflicts, several consecutive years of reduced agricultural production and poorly functioning markets, especially for displaced populations, host families and returnees, fueled by violent clashes and inter-communal tensions.   

Dry weather is also impacting cereal production in Southern Africa, Near East and South America as poor rains at key cropping stages are curbing this season’s cereal production with Malawi and Zimbabwe suffering the most significant reductions. 

In Malawi, with this year's cereal output estimated to be below average, the number of food insecure people in 2018 could more than double from last year to reach 3.3 million people.  

In Zimbabwe, 2.4 million people are estimated to be food insecure in 2018 as a result of a reduced cereal output and food access constraints stemming from low incomes and liquidity problems of vulnerable households.

The Near East region has also suffered from insufficient rains that have reduced cereal output, particularly in Afghanistan and Syria. In Syria, around 6.5 million people are estimated to be food insecure and another four million people are at risk of food insecurity, according to the report.      

Dry weather conditions in South America have lowered cereal output in 2018 from last year's record, particularly for maize. In Central America and the Caribbean, unfavorable rains also curtailed this year's maize production, except in Mexico.

Cereal harvests rebound in Far East Asia and East Africa
The situation is different in Far East Asia where cereal production is forecast to rise, primarily reflecting gains in Bangladesh and India, with the latter seeing a record wheat output this year due to favorable weather conditions. 

Similarly, in Bangladesh, beneficial weather supported by prospects of remunerative prices triggered an expansion in paddy plantings that drove up cereal production in 2018, following reduced outputs last year.

Likewise, as a result of beneficial weather, cereal harvests in East Africa are also forecast to rebound from the reduced levels of 2017; however, torrential rains earlier this year and more recently in August resulted in floods causing localized crop losses.  

The 39 countries currently in need of external food assistance are: Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Eswatini (former Swaziland), Ethiopia, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Uganda, Yemen and Zimbabwe.

Earlier this in the week, FoodIngredientsFirst reported that climate change is reshaping agriculture around the world, the international trade of agricultural products will be even more important to feed the growing global population, according to a new UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report. You can read more on this here.