American Egg Supply Rebounding from Avian Flu Aftermath

07 Jan 2016 --- The American egg supply is back on the rise after a tumultuous six months brought on by an unprecedented outbreak of avian influenza, more commonly known as 'bird flu'. The American Egg Board (AEB) is the US egg producers' communications link to food processors and during the outbreak of bird flu, many egg product companies feared the worst and consumers saw a sharp increase in price as a result of this.

Rick Brown is the Senior Vice President of Urner Barry. He explains how the current wholesale egg prices compare to pre-outbreak levels: "At the height of the outbreak, egg prices rose to $2.39 a dozen. Today the wholesale price is 53 cents a dozen, which is on par for the five-year average price for eggs in January for this segment. The five-year annual average price for these eggs is $0.832."

The egg industry in Ames, Iowa reports half of the laying hens lost in 2015 are already replaced and if recovery continues at the current rate by midyear 2016 the flocks should all be at or at least near to 100 percent pre-outbreak levels.

A number of factors are at play in the supply rebound beyond affected farms repopulating. Egg imports, fewer exports and unaffected farms increasing production have all contributed to help with the supply gap.

John Howeth, Senior Vice President of Foodserve and Egg Product Marketing highlighted the severity of the supply crisis to FoodIngredientsFirst: “The industry lost more than 35 million laying hens. This calculates to about 12 percent of all laying hens. The strategy to deal with the supply issue was to rely on imports, reduce exports, divert inventory from consumer trade and increase supply from unaffected areas of the country. Repopulation of farms has also added to supply.”

Consumer confidence was not impacted negatively, he claims, however. “Even at the peak of the outbreak in July, consumer confidence was very high. During the month of the avian influenza outbreak, the American Egg Board fielded an online Consumer Confidence Survey to better understand consumer attitudes towards the safety of eggs and their awareness of the outbreak events. According to that survey, nearly 70 percent of consumers had not noticed any news about avian influenza affecting eggs. Greater than 80 percent of those asked said it would not affect their consumption and more than 90 percent believe eggs are safe to eat.”

With supply certainly returning to normal levels, there will be ample availability for use in the food industry and prices of eggs are expected to come down in Q1. Howeth hopes that further incidents will not affect future supplies: “We expect supply and pricing to regain their previous consistency.”

by Elizabeth Kenward