Japan’s U-turn on rice production poised to increase domestic supplies and keep prices stable

The Japanese government wants to boost its rice production, unveiling a policy shift to increase cultivation and overhaul a decades-long system that curbed farmers’ output of the food staple.

Japan maintains almost a 100% self-sufficiency rate for rice, with paddies covering a significant area around the country. However, farmers have operated under a de facto cap on rice production for years in a bid to keep supply and prices stable.

Now, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has announced a change of strategy that gives farmers more support and proactively encourages them to grow more rice. This will include supporting more large-scale rice farming, helping farmers access new technology, and removing the cap.

Revising the rice field policy

Farmers are encouraged to take advantage of the new opportunities as the government plans to work on further measures to ensure rice paddies are passed on to future generations.

The changes are a far cry from decades of government policies aimed at reducing rice farming in favor of other crops, such as soybeans. These policies have been in place since the early 1970s and aim to ensure that rice prices do not drop.

Consequently, with rice cultivated effectively being stunted, the amount of land used for rice paddies declined to below 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) in 2024.

However, the new rules will boost food security, insists Ishiba, who is fighting to win back support following a steep rise in rice prices over the last year.

Stabilizing rice prices

He has been criticized for the price spike caused by insufficient domestic rice production and the government’s inaccurate demand forecast. “We had assumed that production volume was adequate, despite the lack of sufficient analysis,” he said earlier this week.

“We will work to improve (rice) productivity through scaling out and improving the corporate organization of agricultural management and the promotion of smart farming.” 

The government has also recently released emergency stockpiles of rice, and retail prices have been dropping for the last few weeks.

Once rice output goes up, the government will target expanding rice exports.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is pressuring Japan to buy US rice as part of a new trade deal. 

Record heat in Japan also threatens current rice crops as temperatures soar to 41.8 degrees Celsius (107.2 degrees Fahrenheit), prompting concerns over damage to rice crops. 

Extreme heat in 2023 also exacerbated the lack of rice supply as the quality of crops was damaged.